Holy Roman Empire

On April 9, 1880, the Colombian government, using previous border conflicts with Peru as an excuse, severed all trade relations with Peru.

When the news reached Vienna, the Austrian government was in an uproar, with officials loudly demanding that Colombia face consequences for its actions.

Anyone with even a shred of political insight understood what Colombia’s decision truly signified.

Previously, the Austrian government had promised Peru and Bolivia that their trade routes would remain open during the war.

Being blocked by the British Royal Navy was one thing. After all, the British naval power was unmatched, and the Austrian navy simply couldn’t compete. Reluctantly retreating in that situation was understandable.

But now, the land trade routes have also been severed. Could the Austrian government’s face survive such humiliation?

The French government faced the same embarrassment. They, too, had made similar promises to Peru and Bolivia about safeguarding trade routes.

Now, with Colombia openly defying them, if France and Austria failed to retaliate, how could they maintain their credibility on the international stage?

It must be said that the Colombian government made a grave mistake by acting at the wrong time. Had they not been the last nation to cut trade ties, they might not have drawn so much hostility.

Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina, and Ecuador had previously made similar decisions, also provoking dissatisfaction from France and Austria.

However, France and Austria’s influence in those four countries was relatively weak, and since they had all acted together, retaliating against them would be complicated. For now, this grievance was temporarily set aside.

This wasn’t President Rafael Núñez’s fault. The reason Colombia hadn’t acted alongside the other four nations and ended up as the final domino to fall was entirely due to the previous administration.

Everyone knew that choosing between Britain, France, and Austria wasn’t just a diplomatic challenge, it was also bound to offend someone. With his term nearing its end, the clever President Julián Trujillo Largacha had wisely chosen not to step into that trap.

By skillfully balancing relations among Britain, France, and Austria, President Julián managed to secure considerable benefits for Colombia. However, those gains came with significant risks and compromises.

But that didn’t matter much to Julián. He retired with an impressive track record, leaving the mess and consequences for his successor to handle.

When Rafael Núñez took office, this tightrope-walking game came to an end. The patience of Britain, France, and Austria had run out, and the Colombian government was forced to make a choice.

Tragically, no matter what decision Rafael Núñez made, the outcome was destined to be the worst possible scenario.

…

At the Vienna Palace, upon receiving this “good news,” Franz immediately convened a government meeting.

Foreign Minister Wessenberg began, “It’s not surprising that the Colombian government leaned towards the British. The pro-Austrian and pro-French factions have always been riddled with internal conflicts. Their cooperation only began under the influence of our cooperation with the French.

But such cooperation was merely nominal. While we could influence their decisions, we couldn’t make choices on their behalf.

In the face of self-interest, they would never compromise. For example, in the presidential election.

In some ways, we inadvertently helped the British. If we hadn’t forced the pro-Austrian and pro-French factions to cooperate, draining their energy in internal struggles, Rafael Núñez wouldn’t have won so easily.

Now that a pro-British government is in power, their decisions favoring British interests are unsurprising.

What stands out, however, is the pretext of a border conflict that the Colombian government used. This excuse is quite interesting, as it could potentially be extended into territorial claims against Peru.

Our initial analysis suggests that, to secure Colombia’s loyalty, the British must have promised them territorial concessions.

The fact that Colombia hasn’t directly made territorial demands of Peru likely reflects their concern about our and France’s reaction.”

The forced union between the pro-Austrian and pro-French factions was a political necessity. Whether the current Colombian government succeeded in its election was ultimately not of significant importance to Austria.

Supporting Peru and Bolivia in continuing the war was merely a way to frustrate the British. Franz wasn’t so confident as to believe that Austrian support alone could reverse the outcome.

In this “war of incompetence,” Peru and Bolivia were undoubtedly outperforming Chile in sheer dysfunction… they were rotten to the core.

It’s always hardest to deal with incompetent allies. Just thinking about the Bolivian army armed with bows and arrows made Franz lose all confidence in them.

From this perspective, the Colombian government’s decision merely served to accelerate the end of the war and did not fundamentally alter its outcome.

Chancellor Felix spoke up, “The Colombian government’s motives are no longer important. Since they’ve made a mistake, they must pay the price.

However, given the tacit understanding we share with the British, it’s clearly not worth breaking this balance over Colombia alone.”

This was the crux of the matter. Ever since the Anglo-French-Austrian alliance, the three powers had been content to support proxy forces in overseas conflicts rather than intervening directly.

“This problem isn’t hard to solve. I’m confident the Central American colonial government can handle it. They’ve long wanted to annex Panama, but they’ve just been waiting for the right opportunity.

Now that France and Austria are both in an awkward position, even just to save face, the French government will have no choice but to support our actions.”

This calm response came from Colonial Minister Stephen.

The Colonial Ministry had been eager to act for some time. Austria hadn’t pursued territorial expansion in recent years, and with the increasing integration of African colonies, the Colonial Ministry’s authority had been steadily shrinking.

As the Colonial Ministry’s jurisdiction shrank, so too did its influence within the government. If this trend wasn’t reversed, it was likely that in the future, the Colonial Minister might not even have a seat at the cabinet table.

The African integration policy was a national strategy for Austria, and Stephen had no illusions about changing it. Those officials who had opposed colonial integration had long been sent back to their estates to farm.

Against this backdrop, if the Colonial Ministry wanted to reclaim its influence, it could only do so through further territorial expansion. With that in mind, it was no surprise they had their eyes set on Panama.

Not everyone had strategic foresight, and Austria had its fair share of short-sighted officials.

In Austrian Central America, many people dreamed of occupying the Panama region, kicking out the French, developing the Panama Canal themselves, and controlling a golden waterway akin to the Suez Canal.

Profit was the ultimate motivator, and in pursuit of guilders, many local colonial companies had set their sights on Panama.

Every year, there were countless petitions urging the Austrian Colonial Ministry to seize Panama. Some had even gone so far as to draft detailed maps of the region in preparation for an occupation.

Foreign Minister Wessenberg objected, “If it’s just about teaching the Colombian government a lesson, the French government might support us under political pressure.

But if we intend to occupy Panama, that’s an entirely different story. The French will undoubtedly demand their share of the spoils. Are we prepared to agree or refuse?”

He wasn’t wrong. This was the essence of international diplomacy. Even diplomatic grievances were ultimately about profits. If the reward was sufficient, any grievance could quickly evaporate.

The French would never exert effort without expecting a reward, nor would they sit idly by while Austria claimed all the benefits. Similarly, Austria had no intention of sharing Panama with France. The land itself might not seem valuable, but its potential strategic significance was immense.

And here lay the problem: invading an independent country and seizing its territory would undoubtedly incur international backlash.

Without France sharing the diplomatic pressure, the Austrian government would need to carefully consider the consequences of acting alone.

After a brief moment of thought, Franz spoke up, “Now is not the best time. We must consider the international response. If we are to make a move on Panama, it would be far better to incite local independence first.”

Austria was indeed powerful, but it did not possess the overwhelming dominance of a later-era United States. It still had to take into account the reactions of other world powers.

Compared to direct military intervention, inciting local independence and then integrating a newly independent government into Austria’s colonial system would be far less controversial.

This strategy has been used repeatedly throughout history. As long as they maintained appearances and provided some semblance of legal justification, the international outcry could be minimized.

Colonial Minister Stephen explained, “Your Majesty, the Colombian government has stationed a full division in Panama. With such a heavy military presence, any local rebellion would be crushed before it could begin.”

Given Panama’s meager population of just over 100,000 people, the presence of an entire division was indeed a significant military force.

Franz raised an eyebrow in surprise and asked, “A whole division? How many troops does Colombia have in total?”

Colombia was a classic example of a vast land with a sparse population. Including native Americans and African descendants, the country’s total population was only around 2 to 3 million.

The fact that a single division was stationed in tiny Panama would surprise anyone hearing it for the first time.

Stephen replied directly, “The regular army consists of just over 30,000 troops, while the militia and reserve forces number around 50,000. As for their maximum mobilization capacity, no one knows for certain.

Due to the proximity of the Austrian Central American colonies, Panama is considered a strategic priority for Colombia. They’ve stationed a third of their army there.

Domestically, Colombia’s political situation is unstable. If we can eliminate their forces in Panama, the internal contradictions within Colombia will inevitably intensify.”

It was clear that the Colonial Ministry was well-prepared. They had an in-depth understanding of Colombia’s military capabilities, having studied them thoroughly.

With the advent of the modern era of firearms, the concept of “maximum mobilization” had essentially become a privilege of industrialized nations. Agricultural nations, even if they could rally their people, simply lacked the capability to produce modern weapons and equipment.

In most countries, an external invasion might prompt internal unity to resist a common enemy. However, Colombia was an exception.

This unique situation could be traced back to the American Civil War era when Austria had organized an immigration wave. Today, Germans have become Colombia’s second-largest ethnic group, with native Americans being the largest.

The German immigrants who settled in Colombia were mostly ordinary people. Despite having Austria as a backing, they remained at the bottom of society as latecomers. The upper social positions had long been occupied by the Spanish-descended elite.

Out of fear that Austria might destabilize Colombia from within, successive Colombian governments had deliberately suppressed the German community, whether consciously or unconsciously. Even the pro-Austrian factions remained cautious toward Austrian influence.

On the surface, there were no explicit discriminatory policies, just subtle behind-the-scenes moves. Even if such actions were discovered, they could always be dismissed as individual behavior, leaving the Austrian government unable to intervene.

This issue wasn’t unique to Colombia. Immigrants faced similar challenges in almost every country. People aren’t gold, after all. How can everyone possibly like them?

Beyond this, racial tensions were a persistent issue plaguing South American nations. The blood of the native Americans was still fresh. If the government was strong, it could suppress these tensions through force, but any sign of decline or weakness would cause them to erupt violently.

Whether Colombia’s internal conflicts would explode was never in doubt for Franz. Even if no contradictions existed, they could easily be manufactured. And in Colombia, conflicts already ran deep.

After a brief moment of contemplation, Franz nodded, “Since Colombia has already prepared for this, we won’t hold back. Find an excuse to eliminate their stationed forces.

However, for the sake of our international reputation, we cannot directly occupy Panama. After the conflict, we will immediately hand over the territory to the Panama Independence Organization and withdraw from the area as soon as possible.”

The “Panama Independence Organization” had never existed before. At least, no one in the Austrian government had ever heard of it. But now, it had to exist.

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